JETS at DOLPHINS
1 p.m., Dolphins by 3, 45
HANK’S HONEYS: Sam Darnold is looking helpless with the material he has around him and the Jets are pinning their hopes on untested RB Elijah McGuire’s return. That’s worth repeating. The Jets’ best hope is Elijah McGuire. For sure, the Dolphins’ defense has been trampled lately but they can move people into the box here and not fear the pass. Brock Osweiler is no Ryan Tannehill but he won’t have to produce a bunch of points against this sad sack attack. Although they flopped last time out hosting Detroit, the Fish have been a lot better at home (3-1 ATS in four games) and have a 3-1-1 overall ATS mark against the Jets since 2016.
IF I WERE A BETTING MAN: Dolphins and the under.
FALCONS at WASHINGTON
1 p.m., Washington by 1 1/2, 47
HANK’S HONEYS: Each team beat the Giants in their last game to join an ever-growing club with the Falcons getting an extra week of rest to work out their myriad issues along the O-line and with the defense. Washington, which sacked Eli Manning seven times, has just as big an advantage over an Atlanta line that has been reshuffled again because of injuries. The Falcons don’t have much of a chance to run the ball against Washington’s second-ranked rushing defense and that’s going to leave Matt Ryan in too many third and longs. Jay Gruden’s offense may not be explosive but it is efficient. Alex Smith and Adrian Peterson will lead a ball control offense – just the way the home team likes it.
IF I WERE A BETTING MAN: Washington and the under.
BEARS at BILLS
1 p.m., Bears by 10, 37 1/2
HANK’S HONEYS: The Bills may be home but they are coming off a short week and are beat-up. What they need is a bye. Instead they’ve got the Bears. Worse yet, Derek Anderson is in concussion protocol, which could mean either starting the bumbling Nathan Peterman or signing another washed-up, career backup off his coach. The Bears’ defense, an impressive eighth in points allowed, could pitch a shutout, with or without Khalil Mack. Although the total is alarmingly low, the Bills defense is good enough to keep Mitch Trubisky and Co. from running things up. Go with the under here.
IF I WERE A BETTING MAN: Bears and the under.
CHIEFS at BROWNS
1 p.m., Chiefs by 8 1/2, 51
HANK’S HONEYS: Hue Jackson and Todd Haley are gone but the struggling offense remains. Baker Mayfield has returned to Earth with few downfield weapons and a depleted backfield. That doesn’t bode well for any shootout with old college rival Patrick Mahomes. Cleveland’s defense is predicated on its front, with defensive MVP candidate Myles Garrett creating havoc. It’s secondary, though, is eminently beatable. Mahomes has such a quick release that Garrett should be close to a non-factor. The Browns have been blowing a lot of coverages lately and with all of Andy Reid’s looks, they will be running around trying to contend with the likes of Kareem Hunt, Travis Kelce and Tyreek Hill.
IF I WERE A BETTING MAN: Chiefs and the over.
CHARGERS at SEAHAWKS
4:05 p.m., Seahawks by 1 1/2, 48
HANK’S HONEYS: The Seahawks have turned things around in a hurry with four SU wins in five weeks but those have come against mediocre teams: the Lions, Raiders, Cardinals and Cowboys. None have the offense that the Chargers bring in this week. Seattle will have the advantage of its loud home nest but, hey, it could be said that the Chargers play all their games in front of the opposition’s fans. This is the time for the Seahawks to make a statement. Just don’t think they’re quite ready against Philip Rivers and his receiving corps.
IF I WERE A BETTING MAN: Chargers and the over.
TEXANS at BRONCOS
4:05 p.m., Broncos by 1, 46 1/2
HANK’S HONEYS: The better team is the underdog here. The biggest mismatch is Lamar Miller against the Broncos’ sixth-worst run defense. Miller has been a workhorse the past two weeks behind a line that is much better run blocking than protecting Deshaun Watson. Miller’s emergence, however, has also started to open things up for Watson, who has the quickness to escape Denver’s pass rushers. Case Keenum has been Mile High disappointment for the Broncos with a league-high 10 INTs. Most of them have come under pressure after 22 sacks. Look for J.J. Watt and Jadeveon Clowney to continue the trend.
IF I WERE A BETTING MAN: Texans and the under.
BUCS at PANTHERS
1 p.m., Panthers by 6 1/2, 55
HANK’S HONEYS: The Panthers have dominated the series lately with a 7-3 ATS mark in their last 10 but after two straight wins as an underdog, this could be a trap game and, although the Panthers have been a strong pick while defending their home turf, the number is just too bloated to lay. Carolina’s offense has come to life over the last five quarters and that should continue against the Bucs but with Jameis Winston on the bench, the Panthers’ plus-six turnover ratio becomes less imposing. Ryan Fitzpatrick steadies the Bucs’ offense enough to keep things close. Bucs are 6-2 ATS in their last eight as a dog, 1-1 ATS in divisional road games this season.
IF I WERE A BETTING MAN: Bucs and the over.
STEELERS at RAVENS
1 p.m., Ravens by 3, 47
HANK’S HONEYS: The Steelers have picked it up with three straight wins since they lost to the Ravens in Pittsburgh with James Conner providing balance as Le’Veon Bell continues his stubborn holdout. The Ravens, meanwhile, have dropped three of four and look like they need a bye. Their No. 1 defense could be worn down — was exposed by the Panthers last week — and it seems perfect timing for the Steelers, who are 1-5 ATS in their last six matchups, to re-assert themselves in the rivalry.
IF I WERE A BETTING MAN: Steelers and the under.
PACKERS at PATRIOTS
8:20 p.m., Pats by 5 1/2, 57
HANK’S HONEYS: Aaron Rodgers never got the chance to orchestrate a game-winning drive last week after going toe to toe with Jared Goff. Now comes his second and no-doubt final matchup against Tom Brady. We don’t necessarily like it that the Pack is playing on either coast in successive weeks or that this is usually the time when the Patriots go on their roll after working out the early-season kinks. But the Pats are working on a short week and there are enough holes in the New England secondary for Rodgers to exploit, enough to keep it close and maybe, enough to win – if he gets his chance this time.
IF I WERE A BETTING MAN: Packers and the over.
RAMS at SAINTS
4:25 p.m., Saints by 2, 60
HANK’S HONEYS: The law of averages seems to favor the Saints in a matchup of teams that could be facing each other in the NFC Championship Game. If the Rams are going to lose, this seems like a logical place. Both teams have explosive, balanced offenses, creative coaches – and vulnerable secondaries. But the Saints are a little worse back there (after all, they considered Eli Apple an upgrade) while the Rams are better up front, especially with the addition of Dante Fowler. New Orleans’ home dome advantage is offset by Rams’ sparkling 11-1 SU record in their last dozen road games. The total is crazy high. The under seems the smart play but we’re not that smart.
IF I WERE A BETTING MAN: Rams and the over.
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LOOK BUT DON’T TOUCH
TITANS at COWBOYS
Monday, 8:15 p.m., Cowboys by 6 1/2, 41
HANK’S HONEYS: The lose one, win one Cowboys are due back in the win column again, coming off an active bye week during which they picked up WR Amari Cooper from the Raiders and fired their O-line coach. The wisdom of throwing away a first round pick can be debated (bad move, we say) but Cooper should give the stagnant Cowboys’ passing game a much needed pick-me-up with Tennessee’s D honing in on Ezekiel Elliott. The Titans are struggling to score points and playing the Cowboys defense, well-rested besides, is never a picnic. Dallas should stretch their SU home record to 4-0 but we advise caution after the line jumped after opening at four.
CAN’T HELP YOURSELF?: Cowboys and the under.
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BEST OF THE REST:
LIONS at VIKINGS
1 p.m., Vikings by 4 1/2, 49 1/2
IF I WERE A BETTING MAN: Lions and the under.
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WEEK’S BEST BET: Chiefs. Brownies are back to their old sieves. Last week: 8-6.
Best Bets: 2-6.